Viewing archive of Monday, 2 February 2004
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2004 Feb 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2004IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. There were two C-class flares
during the past 24 hours, a C2 at 0759 UTC from Region 547 (S09W26),
and a C1 at 1124 UTC from a region very close to the east limb at
latitude N05. Region 547 and 549 (N14E42) are the largest groups on
the disk but are still relatively small and stable. Region 550
(S08W14) and Region 551 (S06E63) were assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days (2-4 February). There is a slight chance for
an isolated M-flare from Region 547 or Region 549.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. An
initially quiet to unsettled condition gave way to about six hours
of storming between 0600-1200 UTC. The storming was associated with
high speed solar wind and some moderately negative interplanetary
magnetic field component Bz (-5 to -10). The field has been mostly
active since 1200 UTC. The solar wind speed has shown a slowly
increasing trend since 0500 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron
fluxes reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next two days (3-4
February), and should decline to mostly unsettled with occasional
active periods for the third day (5 February). The enhanced activity
is expected from favorably positioned coronal holes.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 102 Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 02 Feb 120
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 025/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 015/020-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
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