Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. A very
impulsive M1 flare occurred at 31/1824Z from Region 528 (N09W93) on
the west limb. NOAA SXI imagery suggests additional active regions
just beyond the east limb which will be rotating into view soon. In
addition, there has been a slight increase in background X-ray
levels over the past twenty four hours most likely due to the
increased activity on the east limb. New Region 534 (S05E40) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be a low
levels with at slight chance of moderate activity. Active regions
beyond the east limb are expected to have C-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. A coronal
hole high speed stream increased solar wind speed to 600 km/s and
produced minor storm levels. The Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field exhibited oscillations between +5 and -10 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels. The high speed stream
is expected to produce active levels on 01 January. Activity should
decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 02 - 03 January.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Dec 106 Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 100/095/095 90 Day Mean 31 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 003/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 017/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 020/030-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 00% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
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