Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 364 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 528 (N10W78)
produced a C1 flare at 1940Z near the west limb. Two small solar
filaments lifted off the visible disk during the past twenty-four
hours; an eight degree filament disappeared near N23E01 and a ten
degree filament disappeared near S21W04.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 528 has the potential for C-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. An
isolated period of unsettled activity was observed.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Isolated active periods
are possible on 01 January due to a coronal hole high speed stream
rotating into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Dec 108 Predicted 31 Dec-02 Jan 100/095/085 90 Day Mean 30 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Dec 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Dec 006/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Dec-02 Jan 010/015-020/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Dec to 02 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
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