Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Several C-class flares
occurred over the period, including a C8.6/Sf at 18/0931Z from
Region 525 (N09E44). New Region 528 (N08E71) was numbered today,
and it produced several C-class flares including a C5.5 at 18/1209Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate, with possible isolated major flares from Regions 525
and 528.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to increase from quiet to active levels over the next three
days. Isolated minor storming is possible due to the arrival of
high speed solar wind from a coronal hole moving into geoeffective
position beginning 19-20 December.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Dec 123 Predicted 19 Dec-21 Dec 130/135/135 90 Day Mean 18 Dec 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec 004/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Dec 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec 015/015-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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