Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 December 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 352 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Dec 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Several C-class flares occurred over the period, including a C8.6/Sf at 18/0931Z from Region 525 (N09E44). New Region 528 (N08E71) was numbered today, and it produced several C-class flares including a C5.5 at 18/1209Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate, with possible isolated major flares from Regions 525 and 528.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to increase from quiet to active levels over the next three days. Isolated minor storming is possible due to the arrival of high speed solar wind from a coronal hole moving into geoeffective position beginning 19-20 December.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
Class M 20%20%20%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Dec 123
  Predicted    19 Dec-21 Dec  130/135/135
  90 Day Mean        18 Dec 137
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Dec  004/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Dec  008/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 19 Dec-21 Dec  015/015-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Dec to 21 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active45%45%35%
Minor storm 20%20%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm 25%30%20%
Major-severe storm 10%10%05%

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