Viewing archive of Friday, 21 November 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Regions 507 (N09E36) and 508 (S18E47) produced several C-class flares, and Region 501 (N04W32) produced an M5.8/2b at 20/2354 UTC. A CME was observed on LASCO associated with the M5 flare, although it was not directed at the earth. No significant developments were observed with any active region on the visible disk. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 501, 507, and 508 are capable of producing major flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field began the period at major storm levels due to the remaining effects of a CME arrival early on 20 November. Activity diminished to unsettled levels by the end of the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit climbed steadily during the period, and ended the period near the 10 pfu threshold.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active conditions. Isolated minor storm conditions on 22 November may be caused by a CME shock arrival originating from the M9 flare observed on 20 November. Isolated minor storm conditions are also possible on 23 November due to the effects of high speed solar wind streams associated with a coronal hole moving into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
Class M60%60%60%
Class X15%15%15%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Nov 177
  Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov  180/190/200
  90 Day Mean        21 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  067/117
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Nov  035/045
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  025/035-015/025-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov to 24 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%30%25%
Major-severe storm15%15%10%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news


A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2023/08/07X1.51
Last M-flare2023/11/28M9.82
Last geomagnetic storm2023/11/25Kp6 (G2)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
October 202399.4 -34.2

This day in history*

Solar flares
*since 1994

Social networks