Viewing archive of Tuesday, 9 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 343 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Very little of
significance occurred. There are but two spotted regions visible,
and both are simple and small.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
to be very low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to minor storm levels. Effects of
the high speed stream continue for another day. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit attained high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels through the period.
This prolonged disturbance is attributable to the enhanced solar
wind from a large coronal hole near mid-disk.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Dec 092 Predicted 10 Dec-12 Dec 095/100/100 90 Day Mean 09 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Dec 020/039 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Dec 020/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 030/035-025/035-025/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec to 12 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 55% | 50% | 50% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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