Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 510 (S23W96)
produced frequent x-ray flares through the day. Its largest were an
M1 at 1120 UTC and an M2 at 1546 UTC. This region was by far the
most active center, as the other spotted regions were quiet and
stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
generally low. There is a declining probability of an M-class flare
as Region 510 rotates farther beyond west limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A high
speed stream's influence diminished throughout the day. The greater
than 2 MeV electrons at GOES were at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 48 hours. Enhanced
solar wind may cause periods of minor storming during local
nighttimes. Activity should increase again on 9 December as another
high speed stream is due.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| Class M | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Dec 109 Predicted 07 Dec-09 Dec 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 06 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec 021/043 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec 020/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec 020/020-015/015-025/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec to 09 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
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