Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 December 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Dec 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. An isolated M1
flare was observed at S19 on the southwest limb at 02/2300Z. The
majority of activity over the past twenty-four hours has been from
the southwest limb with two active latitudes; S13 and S19. A C2
flare occurred at S13 on the west limb at 03/2008Z. Region 517
(S06E34) appears to have entered a decay phase with a decrease in
area coverage down to 210 millionths. New Region 518 (S22E10) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Isolated moderate level activity is possible from the
southwest limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that began on 02 December at 1505Z is still in
progress. Up to this point, peak flux levels have reached 86 pfu at
02/1730Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole high speed
stream effects are expected to produce active conditions on 04-05
December.
III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| Class M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 25% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Dec 124 Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 120/115/110 90 Day Mean 03 Dec 136
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 006/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 008/012-015/020-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec to 06 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 35% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 10% | 20% |
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