Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 November 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 507 (N07W69) was limited to a single C1 x-ray flare today that occurred at 29/0834Z. This region continues to show a slow, steady decay, although a delta magnetic structure is apparent in the trailing edge of the dominant spot. Region 508 (S19W57) continued to produce low level C-class flares today. The counter clockwise rotation of the central main cluster of spots ceased during the period while penumbral growth was observed throughout the later part of the period. This region continues to exhibit beta-gamma magnetic characteristics. Region 510 (S23W02) produced minor C-class flares during the period. This region underwent some decay over the past 24 hours and remains magnetically simply structured. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater that 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. Isolated active conditions are anticipated beginning on 30 Nov and continuing through 1 Dec due to a recurrent transequatorial coronal hole speed stream. 2 Dec should experience a return to predominantly quiet levels.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
Class M30%30%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Nov 166
  Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec  160/145/130
  90 Day Mean        29 Nov 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  005/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Nov  006/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  010/015-012/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov to 02 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%20%
Minor storm10%15%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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