Viewing archive of Monday, 10 November 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 500 (S09W36) produced the first C-class flare observed in the past four days, a C1/Sf at 10/2014 UTC. This region, as well as the other two spotted sunspot groups on the visible disk, remain relatively small and simple.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Additional small C-class flares are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. The most disturbed periods were from 10/0900-1500 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active with isolated minor storm periods. A coronal hole high speed stream is expected to influence activity levels for the next few days.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
Class M01%05%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 Nov 095
  Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov  095/100/115
  90 Day Mean        10 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  020/025
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Nov  020/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  020/030-020/025-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%50%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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