Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 November 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was very low. All regions presently on
the disk are small and simple. New Region 500 (S08W22) was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. An
isolated major storm period occurred from 09/1200-1500 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels. A coronal hole
related disturbance is expected to begin by 11 November.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Nov 093 Predicted 10 Nov-12 Nov 095/095/100 90 Day Mean 09 Nov 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov 023/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov 020/025-020/025-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov to 12 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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