Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 November 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Nov 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 309 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Nov 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was at high levels. An impulsive M5/Sf
flare was observed at 05/1052Z (S16 on the west limb). Region 486
(S17, L=284), which just rotated beyond the west limb is the most
likely source. An M1/Sf flare at 05/0237Z was also observed at S16
on the west limb. Yesterday's X17-plus flare began at 04/1929Z and
saturated the GOES X-ray sensor from 04/1944Z to 04/1956Z. Analysis
of available data from this event yield an estimated peak flux of
X28 at about 04/1950Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 486 still has the potential for
M-class activity from beyond the west limb. By day two and three,
activity is expected to be at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A greater
than 10 MeV proton event from the X28 flare began at 04/2225Z,
reached a peak value of 353 pfu at 05/0600Z, and is currently in
progress, but declining. A greater than 100 MeV proton event began
at 05/0535Z, reached a peak value of 1.3 pfu at 05/0540Z, and ended
at 05/0705Z. A polar cap adsorption event is in progress. The GOES
EPS instrument for greater than 2 MeV electron measurement at
geosynchronous orbit is exhibiting proton contamination at this
time, making the 2 MeV electron flux data unreliable.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. The CME from the X28
flare on 04 November is expected to arrive late on day one or early
on day two with isolated active to minor storm levels possible. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on day two of
period.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| Class M | 25% | 10% | 01% |
| Class X | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 99% | 50% | 05% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Nov 114 Predicted 06 Nov-08 Nov 110/105/100 90 Day Mean 05 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Nov 020/031 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Nov 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Nov-08 Nov 020/020-015/020-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Nov to 08 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 45% | 45% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
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