Viewing archive of Wednesday, 22 October 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity increased to high levels today. The disk and limb were very active during the period. Region 486 (S16E81) which was newly numbered today, produced several M-class flares over the interval. The largest were an M9.8 x-ray event that occurred at 22/2007 UTC, an M3.7, and two M1.7's. Region 484 (N04E13) produced an M1.4/Sn at 1511 UTC and an M1.2/Sn at 1601 UTC. Moreover, 2 separate filament eruptions were seen on SOHO/EIT imagery from the vicinity of this region spawning a partial halo CME that appears to be Earth directed. Magnetic field remains extremely complex, a beta-gamma-delta (with several delta structures) through this north-south oriented spot cluster. A slight growth in penumbral coverage was noted during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Regions 484 and 486 are both capable of producing isolated major flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels today. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is responsible for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly active levels through day one of the forecast period. The partial halo CME from today is expected to arrive mid-day on the 24th of October and may produce periods of major storming. Day three should see a return to unsettled to active conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
Class M70%70%70%
Class X30%30%30%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Oct 154
  Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct  160/165/170
  90 Day Mean        22 Oct 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  028/039
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Oct  020/038
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  020/030-040/045-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct to 25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm25%40%20%
Major-severe storm10%25%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm35%40%25%
Major-severe storm15%30%10%

All times in UTC

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