Viewing archive of Friday, 10 October 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Oct 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 471 (S08W57)
produced a C2/Sf flare at 09/2356Z. Region 471 continues to decay
and is now down to 90 millionths in area coverage. No significant
changes or activity were noted in the remaining active regions. New
Region 479 (N24E63) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. The onset of a
coronal hole high speed stream is expected on day three with minor
storm conditions possible.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Oct 112 Predicted 11 Oct-13 Oct 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 10 Oct 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct 004/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct 005/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct 006/010-006/010-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct to 13 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 55% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 15% |
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