Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 464 has grown in
complexity, and produced several long-duration C-class flares,
including a C2.3 at 28/1428 UTC and a C6.8/Sf at 28/1558 UTC. An
11-degree filament at N56E01 erupted sometime between 27/2318 and
28/1359 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 464 has become more complex and may produce C-
and M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speeds
continue to decrease to below 400 km/s as a coronal hole leaves
geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 137 Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 125/125/125 90 Day Mean 28 Sep 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 013/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 012/015-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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