Viewing archive of Friday, 5 September 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Sep 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 248 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Sep 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was low. A single C1 flare occurred at
05/1301Z in Region 453 (S23W56). The fast growth rate observed in
this region during the last period has now slowed. Some minor
complexity was noted in this 200 millionths beta spot group. A
relatively bright plage field is rotating on the SE limb, but there
is no spot group visible yet. The remaining active regions were
mostly stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Occasional low C-class flares are likely from Region
453.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active. Solar wind
speed is in gradual decline as the associated coronal hole moves out
of a geoeffective position. Solar wind speed declined from almost
700 km/s to near 600 km/s over the past 24 hours. The greater than 2
MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit were at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly unsettled to active levels through
day one as the current high speed stream subsides. Quiet to
unsettled levels are expected on day two before the onset of a
recurrent coronal hole on day three. Expect occasional active
periods as this coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Sep 108 Predicted 06 Sep-08 Sep 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 05 Sep 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Sep 015/019 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Sep 018/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Sep-08 Sep 015/015-010/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Sep to 08 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
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