Viewing archive of Sunday, 31 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 442 (S13W47)
produced a long duration C1 at 31/0622Z. LASCO imagery indicated a
CME off the southwest limb associated with this flare. None of the
other regions currently on the visible disk have shown any
significant changes or activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Solar wind
speed has been in steady decline throughout the day and is down to
400 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels. Late on day one to
early on day two, a coronal hole high speed stream is expected to
rotate into a geoeffective position. Active to minor storm levels
are expected on day two and day three.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 110 Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 012/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 015/020-025/025-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 45% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 25% | 15% |
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