Viewing archive of Tuesday, 26 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 238 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's only C-class flare was
a C4/1n at 1559 UTC from Region 436 (N08W51). Region 436 is
declining slowly. New Region 445 (N03E24) showed gradual growth
during the past 24 hours but only produced a couple B-class flares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days. There is a slight chance
for an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled to active during
the past 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity continues to be enhanced in
response to a persistent high speed coronal hole wind stream. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes were at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods for the next
24 hours. Conditions should decline to predominantly unsettled
levels for the second and third days.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 Aug 121 Predicted 27 Aug-29 Aug 120/125/125 90 Day Mean 26 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Aug 016/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Aug 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Aug-29 Aug 015/015-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Aug to 29 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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