Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 431 (S13E03)
continues to produce low level C-class flares and is showing a nice
sigmoid feature on SXI imagery. The magnetic delta structure remains
evident in the northwestern quadrant of spot cluster. The remaining
active regions have been quiescent throughout the period. Region
433 (S23E18) was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 431 remains capable of producing
M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Sustained
periods of southward Bz during night side regions allowed for active
conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels once again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels throughout the interval. A
brief geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream should make way
for active conditions on the first two days of the forecast period,
returning to predominantly quiet to unsettled levels on day three of
the period.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Aug 130 Predicted 15 Aug-17 Aug 130/135/130 90 Day Mean 14 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug 015/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Aug 012/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 015/020-015/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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