Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 August 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 226 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 431 (S13E03) continues to produce low level C-class flares and is showing a nice sigmoid feature on SXI imagery. The magnetic delta structure remains evident in the northwestern quadrant of spot cluster. The remaining active regions have been quiescent throughout the period. Region 433 (S23E18) was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 431 remains capable of producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Sustained periods of southward Bz during night side regions allowed for active conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels once again today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels throughout the interval. A brief geoeffective high speed coronal hole stream should make way for active conditions on the first two days of the forecast period, returning to predominantly quiet to unsettled levels on day three of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Aug 130
  Predicted   15 Aug-17 Aug  130/135/130
  90 Day Mean        14 Aug 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Aug  015/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Aug  012/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug  015/020-015/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Aug to 17 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%15%
Minor storm15%15%01%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%20%
Minor storm20%15%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%

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