Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 August 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 13 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 225 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 431 (S13E17) produced multiple low level B and C-class flares throughout the period. A rapid growth in penumbra has nearly quadrupled areal coverage in the past 24 hours (currently over 500 millionths). A delta magnetic structure has also become apparent in the northwestern portion of spot cluster. Region 424 (S18W80) has begun to exit the west limb and produced only B-class flare activity during the period. Region 432 (S05E71) was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 431 is rapidly becoming capable of producing an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The elevated conditions are in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels. Active conditions are possible during nighttime hours, especially at high latitudes on day one of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
Class M40%40%40%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       13 Aug 131
  Predicted   14 Aug-16 Aug  135/140/140
  90 Day Mean        13 Aug 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 12 Aug  017/025
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 13 Aug  015/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 14 Aug-16 Aug  012/020-010/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Aug to 16 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%35%
Minor storm10%05%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%25%40%
Minor storm20%10%20%
Major-severe storm10%01%10%

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