Viewing archive of Monday, 11 August 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Aug 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Several
impulsive B-class flares comprised today's flare activity. Region
424 (S18W54) has shown a slight decrease in penumbral coverage today
although it continues to exhibit beta-gamma characteristics. Region
431 (S13E43) also underwent slight decay and it too appears to
possess a beta-gamma magnetic structure. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. An isolated M-class flare is possible from Region 424.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the first two
days of the period due to a recurrent high speed coronal hole
stream. Day three should decrease to predominantly unsettled
conditions as the coronal hole wanes.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Aug 129 Predicted 12 Aug-14 Aug 130/125/120 90 Day Mean 11 Aug 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Aug 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Aug 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Aug-14 Aug 020/020-020/035-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Aug to 14 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 45% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 35% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 05% |
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