Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 August 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Aug 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Region 424 (S18W28) maintains moderate size and complexity, but activity this period was limited to occasional intensity fluctuations in the plage field. New Region 431 (S12E68) was numbered today. This new region is likely the return of old Region 410 which produced multiple C-class flares during its last transit across the visible disk. A considerable degree of surging was observed, but limb proximity is still making it too difficult to assess this region's true complexity. Nothing remarkable in the remaining active regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Regions 424 and 431 both have potential for C-class activity. There is a slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. The high speed solar wind stream is subsiding as the large equatorial coronal hole rotates out of a geoeffective position. Wind speed began the period near 750 km/s, but has gradually declined to near 650 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to major storm levels. Predominantly quiet to unsettled levels with occasional active periods are expected on days one and two as the current high speed solar wind stream continues to weaken. Another recurrent equatorial coronal hole will move into a geoeffective position by day three and produce occasional minor to major storm periods.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 Aug 130
  Predicted   10 Aug-12 Aug  135/135/135
  90 Day Mean        09 Aug 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 08 Aug  022/032
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 09 Aug  015/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 10 Aug-12 Aug  015/015-015/020-025/035
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Aug to 12 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%40%
Minor storm10%10%20%
Major-severe storm01%01%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%45%50%
Minor storm20%25%35%
Major-severe storm05%05%15%

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