Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 July 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jul 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 200 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Jul 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Regions 410 (S12W13) and 412 (N16W20) produced several low C-class flares over the past 24 hours. Region 410 continues to develop at a considerable pace in both size and magnetic complexity. Region 412 is developing at a slower rate, but also has significant complexity in a compact spot group. New Region 415 (N13E30) was numbered today and produced a small C-class flare at 19/1734Z. Region 409 (N15W08) continues to simplify and decay. Remaining regions were stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a good chance for M-class activity from Regions 410 and 412.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods during local nighttime hours. Solar wind speed began a gradual rise from near 500 km/s midway through the period to approximately 650 km/s by the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at mostly unsettled to active periods through day one with isolated minor storm periods possible. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days two and three with isolated active periods likely.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Jul to 22 Jul
Class M50%50%50%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Jul 146
  Predicted   20 Jul-22 Jul  150/155/155
  90 Day Mean        19 Jul 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Jul  011/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Jul  020/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Jul-22 Jul  015/015-012/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Jul to 22 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%35%
Minor storm25%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2019/09/28Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2019:212
Current stretch spotless days:14

This day in history*

Solar flares
12014M4.3
22010M2.9
32000M2.5
42015M1.1
52013C8.9
ApG
1200329G1
2199926G1
3200218G2
4201617G1
5201310
*since 1994

Social networks