Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 June 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Just a single C-class flare this period - a C1/Sf at 22/0949Z from Region 388 (S02W32). This region has shown little change this period and still contains some weak magnetic mixing. Moderately complex Region 386 (S06W08) still maintains a weak delta configuration, but was quiet this period as it continues to slowly decay. Region 387 (N18E10) is the largest region the visible disk, but was also quiet. A new region rotating around the east limb was numbered today as Region 390.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. There is a small chance for an isolated low M-class flare from Regions 386, 387 and 388.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active due to a high speed coronal hole stream. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active levels due to coronal hole high speed flow.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jun 110
  Predicted   23 Jun-25 Jun  110/115/115
  90 Day Mean        22 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jun  016/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jun  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jun-25 Jun  015/015-012/012-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jun to 25 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%30%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%35%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
Comments K-Indices On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated, the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. GOES Protons To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

All times in UTC

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