Viewing archive of Sunday, 29 June 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity remained low. Region 396 (S04W38) produced a few C-class subflares late in the period. Region 397 (N12E53) also produced C-class activity. The region is now visible as an elongated white light group, with a large plage field. Magnetically the region is very confused, with a mixture of leading and trailing polarities interspersed. The limbs were quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar wind speeds remain elevated, now near 700 km/s. This high speed stream is from a large coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere. The GOES greater than 2 MeV electron flux is again high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be generally active. Periods of minor storming may occur as the high speed stream gradually abates. Unsettled conditions are anticipated by the end of the interval.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Jun 127
  Predicted   30 Jun-02 Jul  130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        29 Jun 1234
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun  030/032
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Jun  025/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul  020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%60%
Minor storm40%30%15%
Major-severe storm20%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%40%
Minor storm50%40%30%
Major-severe storm25%20%15%

All times in UTC

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