Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 June 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The period was highlighted by a very long duration C3.7 X-ray flare and CME that appears to have originated from behind the NE limb. The likely source region of this event is old Region 375 (N12, L=026) which was very large and complex during its last transit of the visible disk. It is due to make its return on the visible disk late on day two. Region 391 (N14W09) continues to grow, but after the burst of minor C-class flares yesterday, it could only yield minor plage fluctuations this period. No other noteworthy activity was observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Increased activity is possible on days two and three with the return of old Region 375.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A high speed coronal hole stream continues with solar wind speed ranging from 520 to 620 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to active levels through day two. A large southern coronal hole with a transequatorial extension will move into a geoeffective position by day three; consequently, occasional minor storm conditions are expected by the end of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
Class M20%30%35%
Class X01%05%05%
Proton01%01%05%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Jun 116
  Predicted   26 Jun-28 Jun  115/120/130
  90 Day Mean        25 Jun 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun  020/031
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Jun  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun  012/015-012/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%35%
Minor storm15%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active45%35%45%
Minor storm25%20%25%
Major-severe storm10%05%10%

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