Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 June 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several minor C-class subflares
occurred, mostly from Region 391 (N14W09). The largest was a C2/Sf
at 24/1024Z. This region emerged quite quickly through the early
part of this period, but has since stabilized. New Regions 392
(N07E69) and 393 (S15E72) were numbered today. No significant
activity or changes were observed in the remaining active regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Several of the active regions on the visible disk
have potential to produce occasional C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. Active
to minor storm levels were predominant during local nighttime hours.
A high speed stream continues with solar wind speed ranging from 500
- 600 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active with isolated minor storm periods at
high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jun 115 Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 24 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 015/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 025/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 015/015-012/015-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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