Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 June 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity has been high. Region 375 (N11W73) produced three M-class flares, including an M7.3/1n at 12/0130 UTC, an M2.9/Sf at 11/2151 UTC, and an M1.1/Sf at 12/1712 UTC. Region 375 is decreasing slightly in size as it approaches the west limb, and Region 380 is stable. Background x-ray flux remained at C levels during the period. New Region 384 (N16W42) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 375 and 380 remain capable of producing major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. Solar wind speed decreased to around 500 km/s as a coronal hole has rotated out of geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled through day three, with possible active conditions on day two due to elevated solar wind speeds as a coronal hole passes into geoeffective position. Active conditions on day two might also be the result of potential effects of CMEs related to major flare and erupting filament activity observed on 11 June 03.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
Class M 95%75%75%
Class X 40%30%20%
Proton30%30%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 Jun 164
  Predicted    13 Jun-15 Jun  150/145/130
  90 Day Mean        12 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun  010/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 Jun  012/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun  010/012-015/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 10%15%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%40%35%
Minor storm 15%20%15%
Major-severe storm 05%10%05%

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