Viewing archive of Thursday, 12 June 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Jun 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 375 (N11W73)
produced three M-class flares, including an M7.3/1n at 12/0130 UTC,
an M2.9/Sf at 11/2151 UTC, and an M1.1/Sf at 12/1712 UTC. Region
375 is decreasing slightly in size as it approaches the west limb,
and Region 380 is stable. Background x-ray flux remained at C
levels during the period. New Region 384 (N16W42) was numbered
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 375 and 380 remain capable of producing
major flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. Solar
wind speed decreased to around 500 km/s as a coronal hole has
rotated out of geoeffective position. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through day three, with possible
active conditions on day two due to elevated solar wind speeds as a
coronal hole passes into geoeffective position. Active conditions
on day two might also be the result of potential effects of CMEs
related to major flare and erupting filament activity observed on
11 June 03.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
| Class M | 95% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Jun 164 Predicted 13 Jun-15 Jun 150/145/130 90 Day Mean 12 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Jun 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Jun 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Jun-15 Jun 010/012-015/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Jun to 15 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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