Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 June 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 365 (S07W84) produced an M1/Sf flare at 01/1652 UTC as well as a few other smaller flares during the past day. The most active sunspot group has been new Region 375 (N11E74) which produced three M1 flares during the reporting period: at 01/0306 UTC, 01/0711 UTC, and 01/1250 UTC. This region is just visible at the eastern limb as a D-type sunspot group. More of the region is expected to come into view by tomorrow.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. M-class activity is expected from both 365, as it departs the visible disk, and 375 as it comes into view. There remains a slight chance of a major flare from either region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with the possibility of isolated minor storm periods for the duration of the three-day forecast period. A high-speed coronal hole stream is expected to influence activity by 03 June.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
Class M80%80%80%
Class X10%10%10%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Jun 112
  Predicted   02 Jun-04 Jun  105/100/100
  90 Day Mean        01 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 May  018/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Jun  018/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun  018/020-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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