Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 June 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jun 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 152 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Jun 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 365 (S07W84)
produced an M1/Sf flare at 01/1652 UTC as well as a few other
smaller flares during the past day. The most active sunspot group
has been new Region 375 (N11E74) which produced three M1 flares
during the reporting period: at 01/0306 UTC, 01/0711 UTC, and
01/1250 UTC. This region is just visible at the eastern limb as a
D-type sunspot group. More of the region is expected to come into
view by tomorrow.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. M-class activity is expected from both 365, as it
departs the visible disk, and 375 as it comes into view. There
remains a slight chance of a major flare from either region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with the possibility of isolated
minor storm periods for the duration of the three-day forecast
period. A high-speed coronal hole stream is expected to influence
activity by 03 June.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Jun 112 Predicted 02 Jun-04 Jun 105/100/100 90 Day Mean 01 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 May 018/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Jun 018/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Jun-04 Jun 018/020-020/030-020/030
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Jun to 04 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 75% | 75% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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