Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 May 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 362 (S12W03)
produced a C1 flare at 0604Z and continues to exhibit a beta gamma
magnetic configuration. A nine-degree solar filament disappeared
near N19W05 at 20/0005Z. No Earth directed CME was observed in
LASCO imagery.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Regions 362 and 364 have the potential for C-class
flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Periods of
southward Bz near -10 nT resulted in two active periods during the
day. Solar wind speed began a steady increase, most likely due to
the onset of an equatorial coronal hole high speed flow. Wind speed
increased from 400 km/s to over 600 km/s and continues to rise.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. The coronal hole high
speed flow is expected to produce active conditions during the
period with a chance of isolated minor storming particularly at the
higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
| Class M | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 May 119 Predicted 22 May-24 May 125/135/140 90 Day Mean 21 May 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 May 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 May 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 015/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
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