Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 May 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 362 (S12W03) produced a C1 flare at 0604Z and continues to exhibit a beta gamma magnetic configuration. A nine-degree solar filament disappeared near N19W05 at 20/0005Z. No Earth directed CME was observed in LASCO imagery.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels. Regions 362 and 364 have the potential for C-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Periods of southward Bz near -10 nT resulted in two active periods during the day. Solar wind speed began a steady increase, most likely due to the onset of an equatorial coronal hole high speed flow. Wind speed increased from 400 km/s to over 600 km/s and continues to rise.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. The coronal hole high speed flow is expected to produce active conditions during the period with a chance of isolated minor storming particularly at the higher latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
Class M 10%15%15%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 May 119
  Predicted    22 May-24 May  125/135/140
  90 Day Mean        21 May 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 May  009/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 May  015/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May  015/020-015/020-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%35%40%
Minor storm 10%15%20%
Major-severe storm 01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%50%50%
Minor storm 20%25%25%
Major-severe storm 10%15%15%

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