Viewing archive of Friday, 16 May 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 May 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 136 Issued at 2200Z on 16 May 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been very low. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low, with possible increase in activity over the next few days due to returning regions emerging from the east limb.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels. Solar wind velocity continues to decrease as the previous coronal hole rotates across the west limb. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled levels for the next two days, with active conditions possible on day three of the period due to a coronal hole passing into geoeffective position.
III. Event Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
Class M 05%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 May 103
  Predicted    17 May-19 May  110/115/120
  90 Day Mean        16 May 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 May  019/023
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 May  010/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 17 May-19 May  010/012-010/012-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 May to 19 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%30%
Minor storm 10%10%15%
Major-severe storm 01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm 15%15%20%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
VII. Comments The GOES 10 energetic proton detectors are showing intermittent, high noise levels in the higher energy proton channels (greater than about 80 MeV). This problem was first noticed in data taken April 26, 2003. To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. As of 1500 UT on May 15, GOES-8 became the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will be the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray sensor, and energetic particle sensor. This short-term solution (approximately 2 - 3 months) will be in place until we define and implement a permanent fix. A more detailed explanation can be found at: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.

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