Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 April 2003

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 109 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 337 (S14E67) which produced the most recent activity has been stable for the last 24 hours. Region 338 (N17E28) was newly numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geo-synchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
Class M05%05%05%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Apr 112
  Predicted   20 Apr-22 Apr  115/120/120
  90 Day Mean        19 Apr 127
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Apr  018/020
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Apr  013/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 Apr-22 Apr  010/010-007/010-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Apr to 22 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%35%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%45%
Minor storm20%20%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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