Viewing archive of Friday, 11 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 101 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Apr 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. A C7 x-ray event occurred at
0730 UTC, likely from a site beyond West limb. That was the day's
largest event. Otherwise, a number of bright regions are appearing
in x-ray imagery along the East limb, possibly heralding the
imminent arrival of some active regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The high speed
solar wind has slowed to speeds now near 600 km/s, and the wave
activity in the solar wind has diminished. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was high.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at generally unsettled levels for the next three days.
Remnants of the high speed stream may persist for the next day, but
in general, the geomagnetic field should calm over the interval.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Apr 103 Predicted 12 Apr-14 Apr 100/100/095 90 Day Mean 11 Apr 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Apr 017/026 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Apr 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Apr-14 Apr 015/015-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Apr to 14 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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