Viewing archive of Wednesday, 9 April 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 099 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Occasional C-class events
occurred, the largest a C6 at 0933 UTC from a site just beyond the
SW limb. Region 330 (N08W02) is the most prominent of the six
spotted regions, but has been quiet all day. Newly numbered region
333 (N11W36) was born on the disk. There are indications of another
spot group just now coming into view on the SE limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to persist
at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. This
activity is believed to be an extension of the shock/cme disturbance
that began yesterday.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 48
hours. A recurrent high-speed solar wind stream is due to affect the
magnetosphere. Unsettled to active conditions are likely to end the
period.
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Apr 109 Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 105/105/100 90 Day Mean 09 Apr 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 017/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 022/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 020/020-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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