Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 April 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Apr 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 098 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Apr 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest event was a B7 flare at 08/0520Z. Region 330 (N07E10) continues a gradual growth phase and has developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Regions 325(N14W77) and 330 have C-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. A CME shock from the M1 event on 04 April arrived early today with a 33 nT sudden impulse at 08/0115Z recorded on the Boulder magnetometer. Bz reached values near minus 10 nT and solar wind velocity reached peak values near 500 km/s. Unsettled to active levels were observed at mid latitudes and an isolated minor storm condition on the planetary index.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole high speed stream effects are expected on day two and day three of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
Class M15%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 Apr 112
  Predicted   09 Apr-11 Apr  105/100/095
  90 Day Mean        08 Apr 133
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 Apr  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 Apr  015/023
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 Apr-11 Apr  012/015-020/020-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Apr to 11 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%35%35%
Minor storm05%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%40%40%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%05%

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