Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 March 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Mar 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 063 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Mar 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was low. A long duration C2 flare occurred at 03/2105Z from a spotless plage field near S27E72. A large coronal mass ejection off the SE limb was observed on coronagraph imagery following this flare. There have been no white light developments near the source region in the past 24 hours and no other significant activity was noted. Region 296 (N11E21) remains the largest sunspot group on the visible disk and now measures approximately 650 millionths in a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. Despite the size and complexity of this region, it has been rather quiet with just occasional plage fluctuations and minor surges observed. New Regions 301 (N21E36) and 302 (N19E62) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels. Isolated C-class flares are possible primarily from Region 296, with a slight chance of a low M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods at high latitudes. This disturbance is due to a high speed coronal hole stream that began late in the day yesterday.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at unsettled to active levels early, but will return to quiet to unsettled levels late on day one as the high speed stream subsides. Isolated active periods at mostly higher latitudes are possible through the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 Mar 146
  Predicted   05 Mar-07 Mar  145/145/145
  90 Day Mean        04 Mar 142
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Mar  011/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Mar  020/025
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Mar-07 Mar  015/015-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Mar to 07 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%30%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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