Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 February 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 036 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. A single C-class
flare of C2.1 occurred at 05/2037 UTC which was optically
uncorrelated. Regions 276 (S13E27), 277 (S20E54), and 278 (N19E65)
continue to show activity with several occurrences of B-class
flaring.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
with a moderate chance of C-class flaring, and a slight chance of
isolated M-class flaring from regions 276, 277, and 278.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels during the
past 24 hours. Solar wind observations show a continued high-speed
stream associated with a coronal hole structure. The greater than
2MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit have been at high
levels for most of the last 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain mostly unsettled through tomorrow, with isolated
active periods throughout. These conditions should remain for the
next 24-48 hours due to a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Feb 140 Predicted 06 Feb-08 Feb 145/145/150 90 Day Mean 05 Feb 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Feb 014/024 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Feb 010/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Feb-08 Feb 010/015-010/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Feb to 08 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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