Viewing archive of Monday, 24 February 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 055 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only one C-class event
occurred: a C1/Sf at 1136 UTC from Region 290 (N18W33). This region
continues to be the largest of the two sunspot regions currently on
the solar disk. Region 290 (N18W33) became somewhat more active
during the last few hours of the period with some impulsive B-flares
and some associated activity in a nearby filament.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels during the
past 24 hours. Solar wind speeds showed a declining trend throughout
the day. Electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly unsettled for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Feb 102 Predicted 25 Feb-27 Feb 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 24 Feb 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Feb 010/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Feb 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Feb-27 Feb 010/010-010/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Feb to 27 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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