Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 February 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred as the
disk is marked by just two spotted regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 290 (N18W21), quiet today, may produce an occasional C-class
event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The solar wind radial
speed remains elevated, gusting between 550 and 650 km/s. The
energetic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled. Periodic active conditions may
occur, pending a decline in the solar wind speed.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 104 Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 23 Feb 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 010/010-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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