Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 February 2003

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred as the disk is marked by just two spotted regions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. Region 290 (N18W21), quiet today, may produce an occasional C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The solar wind radial speed remains elevated, gusting between 550 and 650 km/s. The energetic electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled. Periodic active conditions may occur, pending a decline in the solar wind speed.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
Class M 05%05%05%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Feb 104
  Predicted    24 Feb-26 Feb  100/100/105
  90 Day Mean        23 Feb 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb  011/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Feb  010/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb  010/010-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb to 26 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm 15%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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