Viewing archive of Tuesday, 18 February 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 049 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 289
(N11W52) produced a B9.8 flare at 18/0841 UTC. The most significant
event on the visible disk was a 47 degree disappearing solar
filament that lifted off at 18/0125 UTC and was centered at N34W58.
Associated with the DSF was a CME off the NW limb which does not
appear to have an Earth directed component. Region 288 (N12E32) has
remained relatively stable. Two new regions were numbered today:
Region 289 (N11W52) and Region 290 (N17E46).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 288 and 289 have C-class potential.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels. A
transient passage was observed at the NASA/ACE spacecraft late on 17
February. The transient resulted in an increase in solar wind speed
to over 700 km/s and combined with fluctuating southward Bz was the
source of minor storm conditions measured at the Boulder
magnetometer. At about 18/0400 UTC, the solar wind became very
structured and was marked by a northward turning Bz and a gradual
decline in solar wind speed to current levels near 600 km/s.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to isolated active levels. Coronal hole
effects are expected to continue after the transient has passed.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 Feb 110 Predicted 19 Feb-21 Feb 110/110/105 90 Day Mean 18 Feb 146
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Feb 008/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Feb 018/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Feb-21 Feb 015/020-015/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Feb to 21 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
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