Viewing archive of Monday, 17 February 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 048 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. The largest event
was a C1.9 flare on the west limb. The most likely source was
spotless Region 287 (N12W90). The majority of activity continues to
come from the west limb and consist of B-class and minor C-class
events. The only spotted region on the visible disk in Region 288
(N12E44). This region has remained a stable spot group with a
simple beta magnetic configuration. Surging was the only observed
activity from Region 288.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Region 288 has the potential for C-class
activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. Coronal hole
effects continue to keep solar wind elevated between 600 and 650
km/s and Bz continues to be, on average, slightly negative.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to isolated active conditions. Coronal hole
effects are expected to continue through the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| Class M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Feb 112 Predicted 18 Feb-20 Feb 110/110/110 90 Day Mean 17 Feb 147
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Feb 009/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Feb 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Feb-20 Feb 012/015-015/020-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Feb to 20 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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