Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 February 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Feb 02 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 033 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Feb 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 276 (S14E66) produced
numerous C-flares during the past 24 hours. The largest of these was
a C2/Sf at 0334 UTC. The region appears to be an E-type sunspot
group with an area of about 240 millionths. Region 274 (S06E05)
showed some growth during the past 24 hours, and displayed
occasional brightenings but did not produce any flare level
activity. The remaining solar active regions were quiet and stable.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
from Region 276 sometime during the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to minor storm levels with a
period of major storm levels at high latitudes from 1200-1500 UTC.
The enhanced solar wind flow which was reported yesterday continued
during the past 24 hours, with speeds in the 500 to 700 km/s range
and total magnetic field around 10 to 12 nT. Occasional periods of
southward turning of the interplanetary magnetic field were
associated with times of enhanced geomagnetic activity.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active during the next 24 hours,
but there will probably be some periods of minor storm levels as the
current disturbance persists partway into the first day. A decrease
to mostly unsettled is expected for the second day. An increase to
unsettled to active is anticipated on the third day in response to a
favorably positioned coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 02 Feb 127 Predicted 03 Feb-05 Feb 130/135/140 90 Day Mean 02 Feb 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Feb 010/013 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Feb 028/050 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Feb-05 Feb 015/030-010/015-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Feb to 05 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 10% |
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