Viewing archive of Monday, 6 January 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 006 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 244 (S23E14)
produced the largest optically correlated event of the period, a
C2.7/Sf flare occurring at 06/0943 UTC. A weak gamma magnetic
configuration remains intact although a loss of penumbral coverage
was noted during the period. Region 242 (S08E03) decreased in areal
spot coverage and appears to have lost the gamma portion of it's
magnetic field today. Regions 246 (N08E10) and 247 (S17E73) were
newly assigned this period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through the forecast
period.
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Jan 162 Predicted 07 Jan-09 Jan 165/170/175 90 Day Mean 06 Jan 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Jan 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan 005/010-005/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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