Viewing archive of Saturday, 11 January 2003
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2003 Jan 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 011 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Jan 2003IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 242 (S07W61) produced
several low C-class flares this period. Some new development was
noted in this moderately complex region. More spots have rotated
into view near newly numbered Region 254 (S16E62). Limb proximity
hinders a more thorough analysis, but there may be two groups there.
Small subfaint flares and minor C-class activity was also noted in
Regions 244 (S22W56), 247 (S17E07), and 251 (S14E32).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate models. Regions 242, 247, 251, and 254 all have
potential to produce an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A weak high speed
coronal hole stream produced unsettled conditions early in the
period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels.
III. Event Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Jan 189 Predicted 12 Jan-14 Jan 190/195/190 90 Day Mean 11 Jan 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Jan 007/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Jan 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Jan-14 Jan 008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Jan to 14 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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