Viewing archive of Friday, 27 December 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 361 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Dec 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity reached very low levels this period.
Occasional subflares were observed in decaying Region 230 (S04W77)
as it approached the west limb. New Region 236 emerged today and
produced occasional plage enhancements and a B-class subflare late
in the period The remaining regions are small with simple magnetic
structure.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low for the next three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels with
isolated major storm periods at higher latitudes. These storm
conditions are a result of a large coronal hole that rotated into a
geoeffective position late yesterday. Solar wind speed ranged from
700 - 800 km/s during the latter half of this period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to minor storm levels in response
to the existing high speed, coronal hole stream. Expect the storming
to gradually subside over days two and three of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Dec 117 Predicted 28 Dec-30 Dec 115/115/115 90 Day Mean 27 Dec 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Dec 008/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Dec 025/040 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Dec-30 Dec 020/025-015/030-008/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Dec to 30 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 40% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 05% |
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