Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 December 2002
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2002IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Region 226 (S28W54)
produced most of today's observed activity, a C4.6/1f occurring at
21/0453 UTC was the largest flare during the period. The
beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure remains intact although much
decay was noted in spot groups areal coverage today. Region 229
(N19W29) continues to show steady decay and was fairly quiescent
today. Region 230 (S08E06) underwent little change but remains a
beta-gamma magnetic complex. Region 232 (N13W08) was newly assigned
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 226 and 230 are capable of
producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at quiet to active levels as
the geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream wanes. Middle and
high latitudes experienced storming conditions between 21/0300 and
0600 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for day one of the
forecast period. The CME from the M2.7 flare late on 19 December is
expected to arrive early to mid-day on 22 December. Predominantly
quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Dec 184 Predicted 22 Dec-24 Dec 185/180/180 90 Day Mean 21 Dec 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec 012/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Dec 015/018 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 025/025-012/015-006/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 20% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 01% |
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