Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 December 2002

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2002 Dec 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 355 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Dec 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 226 (S28W54) produced most of today's observed activity, a C4.6/1f occurring at 21/0453 UTC was the largest flare during the period. The beta-gamma-delta magnetic structure remains intact although much decay was noted in spot groups areal coverage today. Region 229 (N19W29) continues to show steady decay and was fairly quiescent today. Region 230 (S08E06) underwent little change but remains a beta-gamma magnetic complex. Region 232 (N13W08) was newly assigned today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 226 and 230 are capable of producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at quiet to active levels as the geoeffective coronal hole high speed stream wanes. Middle and high latitudes experienced storming conditions between 21/0300 and 0600 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm levels for day one of the forecast period. The CME from the M2.7 flare late on 19 December is expected to arrive early to mid-day on 22 December. Predominantly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Dec 184
  Predicted   22 Dec-24 Dec  185/180/180
  90 Day Mean        21 Dec 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Dec  012/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Dec  015/018
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec  025/025-012/015-006/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Dec to 24 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm25%10%01%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm30%15%05%
Major-severe storm15%10%01%

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